2013/01/20

Computers of 2020, 2030

It's been a while since I last blogged. I had relocated for a new job in 2009, and got over a major milestone late last year. January is already halfway through, so it seems too late for a new year's resolution. I thought about how things will be one year out, but realized a year is kind of a short span to make any prediction. So this weekend, I spent some time having a thought experiment for a longer span.
Computer technology and its place in peoples life continued to change the first decade of 21st century, I thought about what computer's will be like in 2020 and 2030. Not exactly how it will look like, more of how it will be built. Although computers are defined increasingly by components other than the semiconductor chips, they still are the center. I have looked at common knowledge, and applied simple rules to project where the technology will be, and how that will define the system design.
Rather than writing a lengthy essay, I made a slide, "Computers of 2020 and 2030"..

I conveniently ignored all the details of HOW Moore's law is maintained. Process technology people continue to work hard, and Moore's law is just an outcome of that. I just assumed it continues. This is just a wild thought experiment only backed by very rough assumptions. Will see how things will go the next 7 years...

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